Saturday, July 11, 2009

Second Stimulus

Do we need a second stimulus package? Paul Krugman says yes, and has launched one of his unofficial campaigns for a second stimulus. There are really two distinct issues at play here, which the media usually conflate: one is whether we need a second stimulus package, and the other is how successful the first stimulus package has been. On pure economic grounds, Krugman is almost certainly right: the Obama administration's $787 billion stimulus package is too small to close the output gap. The unemployment rate now sits at 9.5%, which is well above the administration's projected unemployment rate without the original stimulus package (graph via Calculated Risk):

The high unemployment rate doesn't prove that the stimulus package has already "failed" in any sense. Stimulus spending takes time, and hardly any of the stimulus money has been spent yet. According to Recovery.gov, only $56.3 billion of the $787 billion stimulus package has been paid out to date:
Moreover, we don't know how much of the $56.3 billion that has been "paid out" has actually been spent yet. To be effective, fiscal stimulus needs to spend money—that is, get money circulating through the economy—as quickly as possible. The majority of that $56.3 billion went to states in the form of grants—for example, HHS has paid out $22 billion in grants to states for Medicaid, and the Department of Education has paid out $6.2 billion in grants under the State Fiscal Stabilization Fund. We don't know how much of that money the states have actually spent yet, although given the dire condition of state budgets, it's reasonable to assume that the states have spent most of the grant money they've received so far. We knew it would take a while for the stimulus package to have an effect when it was passed though, so legislators can hardly claim to have been tricked. Government spending takes time—project rules have to be designed, requests for proposals (RFPs) have to be issued etc., etc. If any legislator claims that he wouldn't have voted for the stimulus bill had he known it would take as long as it has to spend the stimulus money, then he's probably not qualified to work in government in the first place. Now to the issue of a second stimulus. It's not necessarily true that since the first stimulus package hasn't "failed," we should wait and see how effective it is before we start talking about a second stimulus. The truth is, the first stimulus package was always too small. Even if the administration's economic projections back in January had turned out to be accurate, the first stimulus would still have been too small given the scale of the recession, and monetary policy would still have been ineffective because interest rates have reached the zero bound. So there was always going to be a solid economic case for a second stimulus. This is where Krugman and I part ways. Krugman thinks the administration made a political mistake in not asking for a bigger stimulus package the first time around, making it needlessly more difficult for the administration to come back to Congress for a second stimulus. Krugman is a first-rate economist, but he's not especially savvy politically, and this is one of those times when his political/legislative inexperience shows. The reality is that the administration isn't going to come back to Congress for a second stimulus package, and for good reason: A second stimulus is politically impossible. Absent another massive shock to the economy (e.g., Citi or BofA failing), there's a zero percent chance that a second stimulus will make it through the Senate. It's simply not going to happen. Even with another shock to the economy, the chances of a second stimulus passing are incredibly low. I'll be shocked if a second stimulus bill ever even comes to a vote in the Senate. This is just the way Capitol Hill works. The two years I spent working on the Hill were miserable, but they were also invaluable, because they tempered my expectations about what politics and public policy are capable of accomplishing. It's not as simple as "Dem House majority + 60 Senate Dems + Dem president = liberal free-for-all!" All politics is local, as the late Tip O'Neill famously put it. Voting to increase an already-enormous budget deficit (by a substantial amount, as any stimulus package would have to be in the hundreds of billions) is an incredibly tough vote for any potentially-vulnerable member of Congress to take. After the first stimulus bill, omnibus appropriations, and the health care bill—not to mention the deeply unpopular "Wall Street bailout" (TARP) in September—the administration knows that it can't ask vulnerable Democrats to take another incredibly tough vote. Democrats probably have the numbers in the House to push a second stimulus bill through, but it would get blown out of the water in the Senate. To be fair, Krugman did say that he's "well aware of how difficult it will be to get such a plan enacted." But there's an enormous difference between "difficult but politically feasible" and "politically impossible." A second stimulus is firmly in the "politically impossible" category. A stimulus bill is a tough vote for any vulnerable politician—just look at how difficult it was to get the first stimulus bill passed—and there are only so many politically harmful votes that vulerable politicians can realistically give you. The modern U.S. political and legislative system just can't accommodate two large stimulus bills in one year. This isn't a new revelation. A second stimulus was always going to be politically impossible, and the administration knew it. (Rahm Emanuel has a little bit of experience with tough pieces of legislation, remember.) The fact that the administration asked for a stimulus package in January that was too small according to its own economic forecasts demonstrates that the administration was well aware of political constraints. They knew the first stimulus bill was their only shot, and they asked for as much as they thought was politically feasible. Frankly, I'm surprised they were able to get $787 billion. When they initially floated an $800 billion stimulus to the press, my first thought was: "Huge mistake." I thought anything over $775 billion would be rounded up to $1 trillion by their opponents and the media, and that the idea of a $1 trillion stimulus bill would kill any chance it had of getting through the Senate. To its credit, however, the media (ex-Fox News) didn't settle on the "almost $1 trillion stimulus" description, and the administration somehow got a $787 billion stimulus bill passed. If the administration was ever naïve enough to push for a second stimulus, the media would focus almost exclusively on the budget deficit and the federal debt level—when they're not debating whether the first stimulus was a colossal failure, that is. So while there's a strong economic case for a second stimulus, it's beyond pipe dream.

113 comments:

Milton Recht said...

It is irrelevant whether Krugman knows the correct amount of stimulus to undo the decline in economic output or whether Obama could politically request a stimulus package for more than $787 million.

A medical system with a physician who diagnosis a patient's infectious disease that then has to ask a pharmaceutical company to begin manufacturing the antibiotic and wait for delivery would be considered completely dysfunctional. Likewise, a fire department that knows the amount of water needed to put out a house fire but has no effective way to deliver the water to a burning house is also useless. The technical training and expertise of the professionals is useless if there are no effective means to implement the needed remedies. Keynesian economics is similar.

The theoretical issue argued by economists and the media prior to the passage of the stimulus package was whether government spending will lower unemployment and add to economic growth. However, the practical issue about Keynesian deficit spending is whether there are any existing pipelines to deliver the reservoir of government spending and debt financing in a timely and targeted manner.

In our current political environment, compromises on spending and arguments about deficits always occur, which results in monies spent in total useless and inappropriate manners in amounts that reflect political power instead of investment and economic need. Using our existing large bloated federal bureaucracy to dispense the funds to federal projects, other federal agencies, state governments, state agencies and state projects will always result in significant delays with inappropriate and inefficient spending.

Our current system for responding to economic downturns is backwards. It relies on reaction and then program planning and implementation to jumpstart our economy in a downturn.

What our country needed was for economists, such as Krugman and the other Keynesian pundits, to push for legislative passage of automatic economic stabilizers in good economic times instead of waiting for a downturn. In good times, their costs are almost zero and in bad times, they kick in without economic debate and politics. Additionally, in good times, there is the luxury to argue about effective methods of spending delivery.

However, where were our planners? A good fire code and a good sprinkler system are better than a good firefighter. Unfortunately, Krugman and the other pro Keynesian economists let us down. If they were in my employ in my company, I would have fired them for not having a good contingency plan in place for bad times. No economist honestly believed that we would not have another recession or another bout of high unemployment. They might disagree about the when or the severity, but economic cycles, recessions, asset bubbles and bursts are very much a part of all capitalistic economies. However, the high profile and high visibility economists, such as Krugman, were silent. That this downturn is worse than we have seen in a long time does not excuse our legislators and economists from having any plan in place.

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And to Milton...there has NEVER been a time when economists have proven to be valuable rescue personnel of any kind. Once again your kind tries through analogy to pretend you are useful. You are not. Please stop trying and take up a new line of work.

Jim Glass said...

Hmmm... Krugman was a pretty tough critic of Obama to start with, and you seem to be predicting he will be again soon enough.

Not so much as a matter of "honeymoon over" as of "afterglow of an inexpensive date worn off".

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